Confidence Intervals 4 Common Mistakes

Confidence intervals are a key part of inferential statistics. We can use some probability and information from a probability distribution to estimate a population parameter with the use of a sample. The statement of a confidence interval is done in such a way that it is easily misunderstood. We will look at the correct interpretation of confidence intervals and investigate four mistakes that are made concerning this area of statistics. What Is a Confidence Interval? A confidence interval can be expressed either as a range of values or in the following form: Estimate  ± Margin of Error A confidence interval is typically stated with a level of confidence. ​Common confidence levels are 90%, 95%, and 99%. We will look at an example where we want to use a sample mean to infer the mean of a population. Suppose that this results in a confidence interval from 25 to 30. If we say that we are 95% confident that the unknown population mean is contained in this interval, then we are really saying that we found the interval using a method that is successful in giving correct results 95% of the time. In the long run, our method will be unsuccessful 5% of the time. In other words, we will fail at capturing the true population mean only one out of every 20 times. Mistake #1 We will now look at a series of different mistakes that can be made when dealing with confidence intervals. One incorrect statement that is often made about a confidence interval at a 95% level of confidence is that there is a 95% chance that the confidence interval contains the true mean of the population. The reason that this is a mistake is actually quite subtle. The key idea pertaining to a confidence interval is that the probability used enters the picture with the method that is used, in determining confidence interval is that it refers to the method that is used. Mistake #2 A second mistake is to interpret a 95% confidence interval as saying that 95% of all of the data values in the population fall within the interval. Again, 95% speaks to the method of the test. To see why the above statement is incorrect, we could consider a normal population with a standard deviation of 1 and a mean of 5. A sample that had two data points, each with values of 6 has a sample mean of 6. A 95% confidence interval for the population mean would be 4.6 to 7.4. This clearly does not overlap with 95% of the normal distribution, so it will not contain 95% of the population. Mistake #3 A third mistake is to say that a 95% confidence interval implies that 95% of all possible sample means fall within the range of the interval. Reconsider the example from the last section. Any sample of size two that was comprised of only values less than 4.6 would have a mean that was less than 4.6. Thus these sample means would fall outside of this particular confidence interval. Samples that match this description account for more than 5% of the total amount. So it is a mistake to say that this confidence interval captures 95% of all sample means. Mistake #4 A fourth mistake in dealing with confidence intervals is to think that they are the sole source of error. While there is a margin of error associated with a confidence interval, there are other places that errors can creep into a statistical analysis. A couple of examples of these kinds of errors could be from an incorrect design of the experiment, bias in the sampling or an inability to obtain data from a certain subset of the population.

The Classroom Learning Theories And Models - 1454 Words

In creating an opportunity to influence learning for children and adults in the classroom learning theories and models are used to tactfully engage the participants. The learning theories implemented are similar for both school aged children and adults. Regardless of the age of the student that is involved in learning, the system used to accomplish the learning is associated with seeing, hearing, listening, and some instances hands- on practice. Therefore, children that are learning new concepts are very similar to adults who receive on the job training to further advance their career. The application for each situation albeit at times may be different, but the processes implemented may be very much the same to achieve results. David Kolb along with Rita and Kenneth Dunn are theorists that are widely regarded as premiere contributors to the field of learning style models. David Kolb believed that adult learning took place through four stages of development on two levels. Those first level stages are cyclical and include concrete experience, reflection, abstract conceptualization, and active experimentation. However, the second level stages are labeled as diverging, assimilating, converging, and accommodating. Rita and Kenneth Dunn focused on learning behaviors that ranged from school age children to adults. Dunn Dunn believed that there were five influential external factors that contributed to learning. 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Essay on The Book Thief By Markus Zusak Essay Example For Students

Essay on The Book Thief By Markus Zusak Essay To what extent is The Book Thief by Markus Zusak worthy of being deemed ‘Great Literature?’The Book Thief is a relatively recent fictional novel written by Markus Zusak which tells the story of Liesel, a young German girl, and her life throughout the Second World War. Wrought with tragedy, the narrative is told from the point of view of Death, offering a unique insight into human life. Despite how contemporary the novel is, it has received droves of critical acclaim and is often considered to be one of the best books of modern times. But can it be considered ‘great’ literature?There is often debate about what ‘Great’ literature actually is, which is important to consider. For the most part, however, based upon the canon, great literature was originally written by white, Anglo-Saxon males, who are often now dead, as these people were the group who had the political and social power, so in the times when many of the novels were written their view s and experience were considered dominant, so they essentially determined what was ‘great’ literature. However there are many issues with the canon as, although it provides a foundation of what ‘great’ literature actually is, it is widely outdated and is therefore not representative of the rapidly evolving writing styles of present day authors, as well as the habits of readers and the types of novels they enjoy. It becomes even more irrelevant when the fact that ‘great’ literature will not be the same for everyone as different people will have different opinions about whether or not a piece of work can be considered ‘great’ literature.The Book Thief shares a lot of themes with many classic literary novels and indeed those which are relevant to all society. Death is present both in the. .ears it could not be considered ‘great’. Regardless many of its themes are those which are likely to have timeless relevance to society such as war and love, which it also shares with the novels that are generally assumed to be ‘great’ literature, implying that it possesses timeless characteristics as well as the fact that various other aspects suggest that it should be considered ‘great’ literature.I believe that The Book Thief should in fact be considered ‘great’ literature despite its issues concerning how recent it is due to its universal relevance. Furthermore, at this point in time the fact that Zusak does not fit into the canon is almost irrelevant, as the canon is not and should not be a representation of ‘great’ literature in today’s society and is one of the least important factors when considering whether or not a novel should be considered great.